May 11, 2016 at 12:18 pm #46553
note: I don’t usually dabble on this forum in politics,a bit off topic. But the electability of Trump is part of a larger sea change that is happening on the planet, and thus noteworthy. Most pundits think Trump is un-electable. I follow this blog by Mish Shedlock, and happen to agree with him. I’m betting Trump will be the next president. – Michael
Donald Trump, Republican Party Savior
Posted by mishgea | May 10, 2016 9:45:33 | Economics
Those who got Donald Trump totally wrong in the nomination process, still have not figured out why.
Thus, its no surprise they are still wrong now.
I propose, that instead of being the demise of the Republican party, Donald Trump will be its savior.
Still Not Getting It
Lets kick the discussion off with Nate Silvers analysis Why Republican Voters Decided On Trump.
Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination. If youd told me a year ago that Trump would be the nominee, Id have thought you were nuts.
For a candidate like Trump to win the nomination, it means that several things have gone wrong both for the Republican Party and in the assumptions we made about how party nominations work. The other day, I summed up the three most important such factors as follows:
What happened after Wisconsin? My theory as of a couple weeks ago and having not gotten so many other things about the Republican race right, Im sticking to it is that Republican voters were swayed by Trumps arguments that the candidate with the most votes and delegates should be the nominee.
Sticking With Dead Wrong
Simply put, Silver is sticking with analysis that has been dead wrong. But heres the clincher.
Silver says Usually a party picks a nominee who is both reasonably electable and who upholds its traditional policy positions.
The second half of that sentence actually makes sense. The first shows Silvers blatant bias.
The entire step of the way, Silver concluded Trump is not reasonably electable.
What Went Wrong?
Actually, nothing went wrong except Silvers analysis. Silver ignored a massive (and obvious) attitude change.
I wrote about that many times.
December 10: Attitudes, Attitudes: Dear Nate Silver, Regarding Donald Trump, You Are Missing Something Big!
January 31: Nate Silvers Continual Underestimation of Donald Trumps Chances
February 24: Reality Sets In: Its Trump vs. Clinton
Theres no need to go into Nate Silvers numerous other errors in detail. That is not the point of this blog.
My point is Silver still doesnt get it. Its not just Silver. Analysis left and right concludes Trump will get walloped in November.
Crisis Oh My!
Josh Barro, writing for Business Insider proclaims Crisis in the Republican Party is Even Worse than it Looks.
After the Republicans lose, there will be no hugging and no learning. And that means the 2020 nominating campaign could be another circular firing squad similar to the one we are witnessing now. You had better stock up on popcorn.
Nominee from Hell
Salon writer Heather Digby Parton says Donald Trump Is the Nominee From Hell: The Early Numbers Are in, and They Spell Disaster for the GOP.
The article is so ridiculous I wont even excerpt it.
A couple days ago The Hill posted an article from a Republican strategist who just lowered the Republican chances in November because Trump won the nomination. The strategist downgraded Republican chances in Florida, Michigan, and other states.
Apologies offered because I can no longer find the link.
Analysts, left and right, still dont get it.
On the Right, it is absurd to believe Cruz would do better than Trump. On the Left, analysts ignore the shocking weakness of Hillary who was supposed to roll over Bernie Sanders without a fight.
Everyone cites Trumps ridiculous statements on women, abortion and other things. Yep, they were shockingly poor.
However, everyone knows about them. They were ignored. So why are they supposed to matter in November?
In contrast, have we heard everything there is to know about Hillarys emails? About Clinton Foundation donations? About Hillarys misguided policies in Libya?
Trump the Savior
Unlike Ted Cruz, Trump has a very good shot of picking up crossover Democratic votes.
As I stated last year, there are a lot of angry white voters who blame China, Vietnam, and India for stealing US Jobs.
I strongly disagree with Trumps protectionist policies. But my vote is meaningless.
Trump has a strong chance of winning Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, and Michigan.
Ted Cruz cannot say the same thing.
Trump can also pick up Libertarians tired or war.
Millennials? They liked Bernie Sanders and many of them will sit this out.
Trump has Make America Great Again
What does Hillary have? I am strong, I am invincible, I am woman. Lets bomb Libya.
It matters not whether Trump can live up to the message. What matters now is whether or not people like the message.
This is about attitudes.
In retrospect, Donald Trump is the candidate from hell.
He will beat Clinton: Her Hell.
He is the undoing of the neocon warmongers (of which Hillary is one): Their Hell.
In doing so, Trump will save the Republican party from itself. Even if Trump, loses, purging the party of the neocons and the evangelicals is a good thing.
Mike Mish ShedlockMay 11, 2016 at 3:16 pm #46554
I read just the topic …
I dare to say, because of his wife … Of course, she is Slovenian … 😉
Hehehehe … 😉
Best, Jox … 🙂May 11, 2016 at 9:09 pm #46556
The odds are your favor, Michael.
There has never been a two-term term-limited Democratic President replaced by another Democratic President in the entirety of U.S. history. The closest ever to this is the presidency of Truman after FDR, but FDR died in office . . . he wasn’t term-limited. Assuming the pattern in US history continues, the next President is a Republican, regardless of who it is.
Trump’s policies don’t line up with establishment Republican politics, so he will have some crossover votes from Democrats. And, in typical Trump-fashion, I expect him to hammer Hillary in character attacks like he did to all the other 16 Republican candidates that he destroyed. Republicans had a field day with attacks on Hillary regarding Benghazi and regarding emails, and I don’t expect Trump to go soft. I expect more of the same, and at a higher volume.
In short, I wouldn’t be surprised.
The only thing that Hillary has in her favor, is that there is a huge body of the people that hate Trump. They hate his nationalistic Hitler-esque views, his child-like immature behavior, and insensitive remarks overall. Also, many establishment Republicans are against him also for not just this, but for his breaking away from party policies. Economist and well-known actor Ben Stein has gone on record saying that if the election comes down to Trump vs. Clinton, that despite his never voting for a Democrat in his entire lifetime, he will vote for Clinton. I’ve heard other Republicans say similar things. Mitch McConnell has already told his senate friends that they are welcome to campaign against Trump if they feel it will help their re-election chances. In Mitch McConnell’s words, “we can handle Hillary”. Hillary is an extremely moderate Democrat, and to the right politically of Obama (despite her attempts to portray herself otherwise). She in fact used to be a Republican and campaigned for Barry Goldwater earlier in her life. Therefore, many Republicans view her to be “Republican-lite”, stable, and predictable. Trump is an unknown variable, and so therefore many would rather go with the devil-you-know. It is for these reasons, and only these reasons, that Hillary could win.
Although likely a long-shot and a pipe-dream at this stage, I’m still holding out for Bernie Sanders. He’s the only candidate I feel who actually gets it.
If it does come down to Clinton vs. Trump though, I’ll be voting for Clinton. Unfortunately, I know too much mathematics, and know that more tax cuts on the rich (proposed by Trump, as well as the rest of the eliminated Republican field) will create more monetary scarcity as even more money leaves the economy to sit in the bank accounts of billionaires. A consumer-based economy can only operate if people actually have money to spend and create business sales, which is the true driver of growth for an economy . . . consumer spending. Businesses don’t expand if they simply have more capital; they keep it; unless there is sales-pressure by consumer spending to expand. The BEST way to get the economy thriving is to raise the minimum wage and increase taxes on the billionaire class (people who make 1 million+ per year), while not raising taxes on anyone else. It would flood the middle class with cash, which would drive consumer spending. I don’t think either Hillary or Trump understand this, but Bernie does to some degree. But at least Hillary won’t do damage due to policies taken by lack of this understanding, whereas Trump’s tax cuts will. The other big problem with Trump is he is likely going to be a deficit-hawk, and create huge deficits with his tax cuts, exacerbating our National Debt. We don’t need another credit card President. I think Clinton would be more fiscally responsible, overall. Sidebar: Remember it was during her husband’s presidency Bill Clinton (supported by Republican watchdog John Kasich on the budget council) that helped get a balanced budget and started the promised path toward national debt elimination . . . well, until this was destroyed by George W. Bush who left office with trillion dollar per year deficits.
So whoever I vote for, it will not be Trump.
But I predict the election will still fall in Trump’s favor regardless.May 12, 2016 at 1:19 pm #46558
I’m still feeling the Bern as well, but agree it is a long shot.
Hillary is the closest to the Republican “establishment” as it gets, she definitely has that in her favor.
Trump has the “angry people” who don’t really care about the garbage that comes out of his mouth.May 14, 2016 at 12:22 am #46560
bettin on Bern,
come June Mrs C will crash and burn,
Don inflicts some burns but November he’s back to private concerns,
Tote fixed has Bern 25 to one,
Having a small flutter just for fun.May 14, 2016 at 9:32 am #46562
I think what’s interesting about the current election cycle is that we have gone beyond the usual kinds of policy and politics debates to a more fundamental questioning of the underlying system. That’s what’s implicit in Bernie’s critique of American democracy. And Trump challenges the system just through his person, and his flouting and mockery of the conventions of our political theater.
It’s all symptomatic of the pervasive corruption and dysfunction of our basic institutions, and people starting to wake up to the fact that they’ve been getting screwed for a long time.
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